Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

Thanks to all of you that still follow my forecasts.  I truly appreciate each and every one of you!

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!
I will be out of the office from NOV. 22 through the end of the month, as we will be traveling to spend the Thanksgiving holiday with family.  I should be back on DEC. 01 to resume forecasting, but will once again be out of the office OOA Dec. 3 – 4 to travel to Gainesville as my wife is having a minor outpatient surgical procedure. 

I will be using the ECMWF model for the main forecast graphics for winter weather forecasts.  Over my years of forecasting, I prefer this model, as numerous articles depict the ECMWF to be the more accurate model as compared to the GFS.  Here is an excerpt from an article I found:

The ECMWF model’s resolution is 9km or about 5.5 miles. The GFS has a resolution of 25km or roughly 15.5 miles. This resolution is the distance between two points on a grid that the weather model uses. The smaller the number, the better the resolution/quality of a forecast.  The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model is another global numerical weather prediction model that is highly regarded for its accuracy. It employs advanced data assimilation techniques and sophisticated numerical algorithms to simulate atmospheric processes. The ECMWF model provides high-resolution forecasts for various meteorological variables, enabling forecasters to make more precise predictions.  According to current weather forecasting standards, the ECMWF model is generally considered the most accurate for predicting snowfall totals, often performing slightly better than American weather models like the GFS.

For forecast temperatures less than 72 hours out in the forecast period, I prefer using the NAM (North American Mesoscale) model.  This is what we refer to as a regional model, vice a global model, with its forecast grids within the North American continent.  The NAM 3km only goes out to 60 hours, and the NAM 12km goes out to 84 hours.

Should a forecast indicate very cold temperatures, or cold snowy weather:

The following link is from the Animal Welfare Act, and provides guidelines for temperatures regarding your animal:
ANIMAL WELFARE ACT
https://www.aphis.usda.gov/sites/default/files/ac-tech-note-temp-req-dogs.pdf
CONUS SATELLITE LOOP

WPC 12Z  SURFACE MAP NOV. 14, 2025

Analysis this morning indicates that surface temperatures continue to slowly modify during the next 48 hours.  Low pressure is forecast to develop from a trough split associated with the main low located over Canada.  As this progresses, more snow may fall over potions of the Great Lakes and NE U.S.  By around 72 hours in the forecast period, colder air is forecast to intrude over the north central U.S., down into portions of the Ohio Valley region.  Warnings, advisories and outlooks are limited  for very small portions of the eastern CONUS.  Please click the NWS watch and warning display map further on in this synopsis to view ant advisories or statements for your area.
NAM TEMPERATURE ANIMATION 48 HOURS


ECMWF MSLP 72 HOUR FORECAST

NAM MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST NOV. 14, 2025


WPC SURFACE ANALYSIS 12Z FORECAST NOV. 15

NAM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST NOV. 15, 2025


NAM APPARENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST NOV. 15, 2025


WUNDERGROUND FROST AND FREEZE FORECAST FOR NOV. 15, 2025

The following are forecast snowfall totals and precipitation by type during the next 120 hours
ECMWF 120 HOUR FORECAST KUCHERA SNOWFALL TOTALS AND PRECIPITATION TOTALS BY TYPE (ANIMATED)

Elsewhere, the SPC has designated a MARGINAL risk of severe weather in the current DAY 2 outlook for Nov. 15, 2025: ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY…

SPC SUMMARY
Showers and a few thunderstorms may be accompanied by strong wind gusts across parts of the upper Ohio Valley Saturday evening.
SPC DAY 2 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK (LINKED)

TORNADO PROBABILITY

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
HAIL PROBABILITY

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS PROBABILITY

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
SPC DAY 2 PROBABILITY CONVERSION TABLE

The following are the CSU – MLP modeling and NSSL ML (Machine Learning) forecasts which also indicate a MARGINAL probability
CSU – MLP SEVERE PROBABILITY FORECAST

NSSL ML SEVERE PROBABILITY

From the SPC (Storm Prediction Center):
Upper OH Valley…
Forecast soundings indicated meager instability may develop (less than 500 J/kg) with cooler temperatures aloft in the 700-500 mb layer. The lower troposphere thermodynamic profiles are somewhat lackluster, with warmer 850-700 mb temperatures noted in both RAP and NAM soundings, resulting in poor lapse rates. Nevertheless, strengthening westerly flow in the lowest 3 km to around 40-50 kt amid meager instability could result in isolated strong gusts for a few hours during the evening before convection weakens with eastward extent into the overnight hours.
Based on my analysis of current forecast severe weather parameters from the CIPS NAM model, I don’t see anything at this time that shows anything of real concern, based on lack of any CAPE.  Forecast values of SBCAPE, MLCAPE and MUCAPE are currently below 250 j/kj-1.  IF an increase to a SLIGHT risk should occur, I will try to update on Saturday.  Given that indices are so low, I am excluding them in this update.

The CSU – MLP and NSSL ML severe probability forecast modeling is still hedging on a SLIGHT risk of severe weather for NOV. 17, 2025, based on analysis of current forecast probabilities values.  The SPC has not issued any probability:
CSU – MLP SEVERE PROBABILITY FORECAST

NSSL ML SEVERE PROBABILITY FORECAST

Elsewhere, with the QBO (Quasi Biennial Oscillation) in an easterly phase, the forecast still indicates that we will complete a SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) event toward months end. This is based on rising stratospheric temperature and pressure anomalies over the Arctic / Polar region.  These mainly take effect at approximately 60 degrees N Latitude.  Should this occur, it could allow for colder temperatures to once again affect portions of the CONUS.
ECMWF 10 MB AND 30 MB TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE ANOMALIES ANIMATIONS 168 – 360 hours (DAYS 7 – 15)




As this occurs, colder temperatures will occur mainly over the west and NW Pacific regions of the CONUS, with some Arctic air eventually filtering in by NOV. 27.
ECMWF TEMPERATURE FORECAST ANIMATION 168 – 360 HOURS


The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE)You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST