I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!

The following changes are being made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Regarding the issuance of Tropical Weather Outlooks or Tropical Storm / Hurricane forecasts versus Severe Weather forecasts, IF Cyclone Formation Probability models become consistent in probability indicating possible development, or a probability is shown in the NHC GTWO (Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook) or a tropical system becomes a threat to the Caribbean islands, Mexico or any portion of the U.S. or becomes a constant entity in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf during any forecast of severe weather, the tropical weather forecast will take precedence.  These may be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics.

The SPC does indicate an ENHANCED risk for severe weather today. Please refer to the link above for severe weather updates, or click on the graphic for access:
DAY 1 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK


STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 10 – 13
TOTAL HURRICANES :        4 – 6
MAJOR HURRICANES:        1 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 13
TOTAL HURRICANES:         6
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2

WEATHERBELL (Chief Forecaster Joe Bastardi)
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 13
TOTAL HURRICANES:        3 – 5
MAJOR HURRICANES:       1 – 2

2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 0
TOTAL HURRICANES: 0
MAJOR HURRICANES: 0

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias 
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky 
Wilfred

Analysis of GOES satellite loop imagery indicates Tropical Storm CRISTINA in the EPAC
GOES 19 ATLANTIC IR SATELLITE LOOP (LINKED)

YUCATAN SATELLITE LOOP

Based on the NHC 06Z surface analysis, Tropical Waves were located near 41W, 53W, and 61W Longitude as shown in the 06Z TPW (Total Precipitable Water) image. Another wave was just exiting the African coast:

NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED)

The NHC has taken an interest in the BOC and has designated a LOW (10%) probability of Tropical Cyclone formation during the next 7 days.

In a kind of surprise, the ECMWF Cyclone Formation Probability forecast has increased its probability to 50 – 55% for development between 48 – 96 hours out from the 00Z run.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY

Analysis of the global models still indicates lowering MSLP in the southern BOC within the next 48 hours, with development of a possible 1008 mb low pressure area. This will most likely occur due to the remnants of Tropical Storm CRISTINA, located in the EPAC, crossing Mexico and entering into the southern BOC (Bay Of Campeche). This is indicated by RAL track guidance from 12Z, with the majority of the dynamical models and consensus models showing this. CRISTINA is also embedded in the larger circulation of the CAG, based on satellite loop imagery. Remnant moisture could bring increased precipitation chances to extreme southern Texas. Currently, NWS office Brownsville, TX. has not issued and advisories or statements.

RAL 12Z TRACK GUIDANCE

Models indicate at the moment that by approx. 60 – 72 hours in the period, forecast conditions improve to a somewhat favorable environment with a reduction in wind shear with a developing radial pattern (favorable), limited upper level divergence at 200 mb, and very favorable moisture conditions as far as relative humidity (surface – 700 mb), and high PWAT (Precipitable water). However by around 96 hours in the period, wind shear begins to increase with the radial pattern moving away from the low, and lack of upper divergence. Based on this, development of a tropical system appears slim. However, if for some unforeseen reason conditions remain more favorable up until this crosses into Mexico this weekend, south or near the border of Texas, there could be the possibility of a Tropical Depression. The following graphics are animated so you may see the progression of conditions. You will note in the extreme southern BOC how wind shear reduces in the time frame mentioned.
ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST (48 – 96 HOURS)

ECMWF WIND SHEAR FORECAST, 200 MB STREAMLINE, 700 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECAST




NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)

WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)

PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)

CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

I will continue to monitor the tropics for any significant changes

I do not expect tropical storm formation during the next 5 – 7 days.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.