Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.

(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!
This forecast is long and graphics intense.  However, all of the information can make a difference, as the purpose of my site is to try and help keep anyone affected by these systems SAFE!
STORM W 2025 SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 15 – 17
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7 – 8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) UPDATED SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 16
TOTAL HURRICANES:         8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2025 HURRICANE SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS:   13*
TOTAL HURRICANES:          5
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4
* (12 TROPICAL…1 SUBTROPICAL)

The following is the list of storm names for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry
Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy

As we go through the season and storms are named, I will mark them in RED to indicate active, or already named systems.

Please use the following links for severe weather information:
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

NADOCAST
http://data.nadocast.com/

FROM THE NHC
CATEGORY 5 MELISSA EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT… …CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING WINDS, FLOODING, AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY

As of the 11:00 A.M. advisory from the NHC, the following was available on Major Hurricane Melissa:
11:00 AM EDT Mon Oct 27
Location: 16.4N;78.2W
Moving: W 3 mph
Min pressure: 908mb / 26.81 in.
Max sustained: 165 mph
HURRICANE MELISSA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CAT 5 HURRICANE…Maximum sustained winds were at 165 mph.  
TROPICAL STORM MELISSA IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY


Satellite loop imagery this morning still indicate Melissa was an extremely organized hurricane, with a well developed core and well defined eye, and central dense over cast, indicating a still very powerful storm.  It was noted in the last couple of frames that Melissa took a slight jog toward the SW.  This has recently been cited by the NHC as a motion due to the slow movement of the hurricane.
PLEASE USE THE NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY LINK FOR HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND WHICH INCLUDES STORM SURGE

NHC FORECAST DISCUSSION LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/271448.shtml?
NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/271447.shtml?
AVISO PUBLICO LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATASAT3+shtml/271448.shtml?
DISCUSION
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATDSAT3+shtml/271448.shtml?

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

NHC AND HURRTRACKER GRAPHICS

RIP CURRENTS

NHC WATCHES AND WARNINGS

Melissa was now in an environment where wind shear had reduced to only around 10 kts  A fairly strong, well established outflow in the upper levels was noted.  This and the combination of the very warm waters is pretty much negating the effect of any wind shear.  You’ll note the radial pattern to the SW of the center.  
CIMSS MELISSA WIND SHEAR

CIMSS MELISSA UPPER LEVEL WINDS

MELISSA OCEAN HEAT CONTENT

Based on analysis of global models and current SHIPS diagnostics, the current forecast calls for shear to remain below 20 kts through around 48 hours from 12z this morning, with the radial pattern developing over, or just SW to the center the hurricane.  Analysis of the GFS zonal shear pattern indicates a lack of any real shear, with no zonal shear in the picture.  Analysis of the 200 mb streamline pattern still indicates a very good outflow pattern to remain with the hurricane through the forecast period of 48 hours.  This would create some very favorable divergence aloft.  Thereafter, wind shear is forecast to begin an increase, with a deterioration of the outflow pattern.  The ECMWF model indicates very favorable precipitable water and mid level relative humidity values to remain in place through the next 48 –  72 hours before mid level dry air begins to become a factor.  Also, the system will be over  high OHC (Ocean Heat Content) of at least 150 Kj/cm2, and SST’s of 30C.  OHC values of 50+ will sustain a hurricane, and also allow for rapid intensification if all other conditions are favorable.  Based on the current structure of Melissa, and analyzed forecast conditions, Melissa could strengthen slightly (save an EWRC), and based on some of the intensity guidance, although I agree with the NHC current intensity forecast, I cannot rule out Melissa possibly attaining an intensity of 170 mph prior to landfall based on some of the guidance indicating a 150 kt hurricane.  The possibility exists that Melissa could complete an EWRC shortly, however it would most likely not weaken Melissa greatly.  IF this occurs, the track and speed of Melissa will play a critical role in whether or not she can recover if the EWRC does occur shortly.  Most of the time when a major hurricane like this recovers, they can become slightly stronger.  Regardless whether or not Melissa makes landfall as a high end category 4 or minimal category 5 hurricane, damage will most likely be catastrophic.
THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A CATASTROPHIC EVENT FOR THE ISLAND OF JAMAICA!  RESIDENTS UNDER THE HURRICANE WATCH AND WARNING AREAS SHOULD HAVE PREPARATIONS COMPLETE, AND SHOULD REMAIN IN SHELTERED POSITIONS! 
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST

There has been no change in the forecast ridge / trough pattern, so really no change in forecast steering.  Based on analysis of the more accurate guidance models, and consistency of these models, I concur with the NHC forecast track.   I will be monitoring Melissa closely for any significant changes.
12Z TRACK GUIDANCE

12Z ATCF TRACK GUIDANCE

12Z HURRICANE FORECAST MODELS TRACK GUIDANCE

NHC FORECAST TRACK AND HURRTRACKER GRAPHICS









The following are forecast surface winds from the ECMWF, GFS, HAFS-A, AND HAFS-B models:



The following is the ECMWF WAVE HEIGHT FORECAST
ECMWF SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AND DIRECTION FORECAST


I will continue to monitor this situation closely during the next 48 – 72 hours. 

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone formation is not expected for the next 5 – 7 days.

The following links will connect you to the Excessive Rainfall probabilities and River Flood Outlook:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS