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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Good day everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a MARGINAL risk for severe thunderstorms in the current DAY 2 Outlook: FOR PARTS OF WEST AND NORTH TX INTO OK…

…SPC SUMMARY…
Strong to locally severe storms are possible Wednesday night from west-central Texas into parts of Oklahoma.

SPC DAY 2 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK (LINKED FOR OUTLOOK TEXT)

TORNADO PROBABILITY

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
HAIL PROBABILITY

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND PROBABILITY

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
The following is the current CSU – MLP severe weather probability forecast map and NSSL ML probability forecast:
CSU – MLP DAY 2 FORECAST (CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE)

NSSL ML PROBABILITY

DAY 2 PROBABILITY CONVERSION TABLE

SPC DISCUSSION EXCERPT:.
..Southern Plains…
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially near Baja California is forecast to eject east-northeastward and take on a negative tilt as it approaches the Southern Plains Wednesday night.

As ascent attendant to the shortwave trough impinges upon the increasing low-level moisture, thunderstorm development is expected Wednesday night across parts of west/north TX into OK, which may spread toward the Ozark Plateau prior to 12Z Thursday. Initial MUCAPE of near/above 500 J/kg and increasing deep-layer shear could support some storm organization.

There may be a brief window for near-surface-based development near/after 03Z across parts of west-central TX, but the bulk of convection will likely be somewhat elevated. The buoyancy profile will be hampered by poor mid/upper-level lapse rates, and lingering near-surface stability will likely persist across most of the warm sector, resulting in uncertainty regarding severe potential with any organized cells/clusters. However, given the expectation for strongly forced convection Wednesday night within a favorably sheared environment, a Marginal Risk has been introduced. Isolated strong/damaging gusts will be possible, and hail cannot be ruled out with initial development, before buoyancy becomes increasingly depleted with time. Given the strength of low-level shear/SRH, the potential for near-surface-based development will continue to be monitored regarding any tornado threat.
 The following maps will not be available until the SPC DAY 1 outlook.  
NADOCAST TORNADO PROBABILITY (CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE)

NADOCAST SIGTOR PROBABILITY (CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE)
Based on my late morning analysis of the (12Z) severe weather indices , the forecast calls for a marginally unstable atmosphere at the moment.  Indices indicate that some isolated severe thunderstorms and possible isolated supercells may develop by late evening JAN. 07, through the early morning hours of Jan. 08. The strongest threat at this time appears to be damaging thunderstorm winds and gusts, based on forecast bulk shear values, and forecast DCAPE of 500+ j/kg-1.  The strongest CAPE values, bulk shear, 0-3 km SRH, along with the strongest lifted index (L.I.) and mid level lapse rate values tend to suggest isolated, weak tornado activity could be possible if some cells can become surface based.  The SPC indicates less than a 2% probability, however indicates they may add a threat should indices suggest surface based development.  Based on the premise of forced convection and strength of the bulk shear, a 5% hail probability has been introduced.  The strongest forecast indices and parameters should occur within the 5% WIND and 5% HAIL outline.
CAPE VALUES FORECAST

DEW POINT FORECAST

Based on analysis of model animations, the current outlook, and analysis of indices, the strongest convection and indices currently should occur approximately between 10:00 P.M. CDT JAN. 07 – 5:00 A.M. CDT JAN. 08

Indices were analyzed from the NAM 3KM, CIPS DETERMINISTIC, and SPC SREF model guidance.  Indices will most likely change regarding the DAY 1 outlook forecast

The following were the forecast parameters and indices analyzed this morning.  Bear in mind, indices recorded below are for the time of peak intensity.  Some indices meanings are posted below the indices themselves, and the NWS page containing a more extensive explanation can be accessed further on in the synopsis:
SBCAPE: 50 – 500 j/kg-1                  
MLCAPE: 150 – 500 j/kg-1                   
MUCAPE: 250 – 500 j/kg-1                
SRH 0 -1 km: 100 – 300 m2/s2               
SRH 0 -3 km: 200 – 300 m2/s2        
SRH EFFECTIVE: 100 – 200 m2/s2          
L. I.: 10 to -1                                                       
SCP: 1– 3                                              
STP: 0.2 – 0.4  
0 -6 km SHEAR: 50 kts – 60 kts                  
EFF. SHEAR: 40 kts – 50 kts                       
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE: 6.5C – 7.5C   
DEWPOINT: 52F – 62F                                    
EHI: 0.2 – 0.8                                        
TOTAL TOTALS INDEX: 48C                       
K INDEX: 22C – 35C                                          
SWEAT INDEX: 325 – 390                              
THOMPSON INDEX: 12 – 36                    
CRAVEN – BROOKS INDEX: 5,000 – 10,000       

CAPE

ENERGY HELICITY INDEX

K INDEX

TOTAL TOTALS INDEX

STORM RELATIVE HELICITY

LIFTED INDEX

SWEAT VALUES

THOMPSON INDEX

Craven SigSvr Parameter:
The simple product of 100mb MLCAPE and 0-6km magnitude of the vector difference (m/s; often referred to as “deep layer shear”) accounts for the compensation between instability and shear magnitude. Using a database of about 60,000 soundings, the majority of significant severe events (2+ inch hail, 65+ knot winds, F2+ tornadoes) occur when the product exceeds 20,000 m3/s3.
A little fact on SRH values and tornadoes from NOAA / NWS

A little fact on SRH values and tornadoes from NOAA / NWS
Storm Relative Helicity (m² s^-2)
SRH (Storm Relative Helicity) is a measure of the potential for cyclonic updraft rotation in right-moving supercells, and is calculated for the lowest 1-km and 3-km layers above ground level. There is no clear threshold value for SRH when forecasting supercells, since the formation of supercells appears to be related more strongly to the deeper layer vertical shear. Larger values of 0-3-km SRH (greater than 250 m² s^-2) and 0-1-km SRH (greater than 100 m² s^-2), however, do suggest an increased threat of tornadoes with supercells. For SRH, larger values are generally better, but there are no clear thresholds between non-tornadic and significant tornadic supercells.

STP ( Significant Tornado Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A majority of significant tornadoes (EF2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1, while most non-tornadic supercells have been associated with values less than 1 in a large sample of RAP analysis proximity soundings.

SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A multiple ingredient, composite index that includes effective storm-relative helicity (ESRH, based on Bunkers right supercell motion), most unstable parcel CAPE (muCAPE) and convective inhibition (muCIN), and effective bulk wind difference (EBWD). Each ingredient is normalized to supercell “threshold” values, and larger values of SCP denote greater “overlap” in the three supercell ingredients. Only positive values of SCP are displayed, which correspond to environments favoring right-moving (cyclonic) supercells.

The following are the SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) and STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) forecast maps from the NAM 3KM model.  Generally, the higher the values and brighter the color, indicates a greater probability of strong thunderstorm and / or tornadic activity over an area:
NAM 3KM SCP FORECAST 10:00 P.M. CST JAN. 07 – 5:00 A.M. CST JAN. 08

NAM 3KM STP FORECAST 10:00 P.M. CST JAN. 07 – 5:00 A.M. CST JAN. 08

Please use the following maps, which should update automatically, for Mesoscale Discussions and Convective Watches.  You may have to refresh your browser, or click on the graphics.  I have provided the SPC homepage link below, so you may get the updated information regarding any changes to the outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html
SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)

The SPC has also introduced a MARGINAL risk for the DAY 3 outlook, and what appears to be a SLIGHT risk for the DAY 4 outlook.  The CSU – MLP currently indicates a possible SLIGHT risk for DAY 3 and NSSL ML forecast probabilities are currently pretty much inline with the SPC forecast.  I will be monitoring this during the week and will try to update if this comes to fruition.
SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK

CSU – MLP DAY 3 SEVERE PROBABILITIES FORECAST (LINKED)

NSSL – ML DAY 3 SEVERE PROBABILITIES FORECAST 

SPC DAY 4 OUTLOOK

CSU – MLP DAY 4 SEVERE PROBABILITIES FORECAST

NSSL – ML DAY 4 SEVERE PROBABILITIES FORECAST 

The following sites will explain most of the severe weather and tornado values listed above, and will give you an idea of what to expect:
ENVIRONMENTAL INDICES AND PARAMETERS NWS
https://www.weather.gov/lmk/indices

THE WEATHER PREDICTION
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/

The following links will connect you to the Excessive Rainfall probabilities and River Flood Outlook:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)

PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)

CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST