Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!
The forecast center is closed on Sunday’s and will be closed on Monday for minor home repairs.

The SPC has introduced a SLIGHT risk for severe thunderstorms in the DAY 2  outlook:
DAY 2 OUTLOOK (LINKED)

CSU – MLP AND NSSL ML DAY 2 PROBABILITIES


Please return to my site to use the SPC link for updates tomorrow, and use the mesoscale discussion and watches maps as they update automatically, daily.

CURRENT DAY 1 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has increased the severe risk and has issued a SLIGHT risk for severe thunderstorms in the current DAY 1 Outlook: FROM EASTERN TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY…

…SPC SUMMARY…
Severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley. The most likely time frame is this evening to tonight, when a few tornadoes and scattered damaging winds may occur across east Texas to southern Mississippi.

SPC DAY 1 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK (LINKED FOR OUTLOOK TEXT)

TORNADO PROBABILITY

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
HAIL PROBABILITY

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND PROBABILITY

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
CSU – MLP DAY 1 FORECAST (CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE)

NSSL ML DAY 1 PROBABILITY

DAY1 PROBABILITY CONVERSION TABLE

SPC DISCUSSION EXCERPT:
…Eastern Texas to Southwest Mississippi…
Ongoing elevated convection will continue to spread east/northeast through late morning, supported by steady isentropic ascent within the warm frontal zone and over residual cold pools from prior overnight convection. With time, this activity will become increasingly near-surface based as MLCAPE increases to around 1000 J/kg across eastern TX amid continued moisture return and filtered daytime heating. Focused forcing along the front and strong height falls aloft will promote upscale growth of initially semi-discrete cells and clusters into an organized line by early evening. The potential for severe gusts and embedded tornadic circulations should increase as this occurs – especially between 00-04 UTC across far east TX into central LA as the mid-level jet attendant to the upper wave ejects eastward along the Gulf Coast and promotes a rapid eastward surge of the front.

…Far Southwest Oklahoma into Central Texas…
Gradual clearing is anticipated through the day in the wake of morning showers and thunderstorms across central TX into southwest OK. Despite modest low-level moisture behind the primary surface front, cold temperatures aloft under the upper trough coupled with daytime heating should promote lifted indices on the order of -5 to -6 C within a largely uncapped environment. Weak ascent under/behind the upper trough will support mainly isolated convective showers/thunderstorms, but 30 knot mid-level flow may be sufficient for a few organized cells capable of producing large hail this afternoon.

The following maps are from NADOCAST for tornado and hail probabilities.  
12Z NADOCAST TORNADO PROBABILITY  (CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE)

12Z NADOCAST SIGTOR PROBABILITY (CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE)

12Z NADOCAST HAIL PROBABILITY (CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE)

12Z NADOCAST SIGHAIL PROBABILITY (CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE)

Based on my analysis of the severe weather indices, the forecast calls for a marginally unstable to borderline moderately unstable atmosphere at the moment.  Indices indicate severe thunderstorms may be possible during the early evening, into the overnight hours. All severe risks are likely today, with the strongest being damaging thunderstorm winds / gusts.  Analysis of models tends to indicate the strongest indices to be located over the area of eastern TX within the SLIGHT risk outline and the darkest area of the NSSL ML probability map.  However, based on the current 0 – 3km SRH values, weak tornadoes could also occur more inline with the current NADOCAST map forecast.  Lifted indices and moderate to steep lapse rates indicate the current 5% HAIL probability.  The tornado threat appears as if it will be associated with a QLCS (Quasi Linear Convective System) later this evening into the overnight hours.  Based on analysis of the appropriate indices and parameters, any tornadoes that do occur, should remain within the weak range (EF0 – EF1), save any unforeseen increases in the EHI forecast indices.

Based on analysis of model animations, the current outlook, and analysis of indices, the strongest storms and indices should occur approximately between 6:00 P.M. CST through MIDNIGHT (per the SPC outlook), with some activity continuing into the early morning hours.  Rain and general thunderstorms could initiate by 3:00 – 4:00 P.M CST.  Please visit the SPC homepage via the link provided for any changes to the forecast today.
CAPE VALUES FORECAST

DEW POINT FORECAST

Indices were analyzed from the NAM 3KM, HRRR 3KM, CIPS DETERMINISTIC, and SPC SREF model guidance.

The following were the forecast parameters and indices analyzed this morning.  Bear in mind, MAXIMUM indices recorded below are for the time of peak intensity.  Some indices meanings are posted below the indices themselves, and the NWS page containing a more extensive explanation can be accessed further on in the synopsis:
SBCAPE: 500- 1250 j/kg-1                  
MLCAPE: 500 – 1000 j/kg-1                   
MUCAPE: 500 – 1000 j/kg-1                
SRH 0 -1 km: 200 – 400 m2/s2               
SRH 0 -3 km: 200 – 400 m2/s2        
SRH EFFECTIVE: 200 – 400 m2/s2          
L. I.: -2 to -6                                                   
SCP: 2.0 – 5.0                                          
STP: 0.4 – 1.2
0 -6 km SHEAR: 50 kts – 60 kts                  
EFF. SHEAR: 40 kts – 50 kts                        
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE: 6.5C – 7.5C   
DEWPOINT: 57F – 68F                                    
EHI: 0.5- 1.9                                     
TOTAL TOTALS INDEX: 48C – 50C                     
K INDEX: 30C to 36C                                          
SWEAT INDEX: 425 – 520                          
THOMPSON INDEX: 32 to 42     
CRAVEN – BROOKS INDEX: 10,000 – 25,000    

CAPE

ENERGY HELICITY INDEX

K INDEX

TOTAL TOTALS INDEX

STORM RELATIVE HELICITY

LIFTED INDEX

SWEAT VALUES

THOMPSON INDEX

Craven SigSvr Parameter:
The simple product of 100mb MLCAPE and 0-6km magnitude of the vector difference (m/s; often referred to as “deep layer shear”) accounts for the compensation between instability and shear magnitude. Using a database of about 60,000 soundings, the majority of significant severe events (2+ inch hail, 65+ knot winds, F2+ tornadoes) occur when the product exceeds 20,000 m3/s3.

A little fact on SRH values and tornadoes from NOAA / NWS
Storm Relative Helicity (m² s^-2)
SRH (Storm Relative Helicity) is a measure of the potential for cyclonic updraft rotation in right-moving supercells, and is calculated for the lowest 1-km and 3-km layers above ground level. There is no clear threshold value for SRH when forecasting supercells, since the formation of supercells appears to be related more strongly to the deeper layer vertical shear. Larger values of 0-3-km SRH (greater than 250 m² s^-2) and 0-1-km SRH (greater than 100 m² s^-2), however, do suggest an increased threat of tornadoes with supercells. For SRH, larger values are generally better, but there are no clear thresholds between non-tornadic and significant tornadic supercells.

STP ( Significant Tornado Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A majority of significant tornadoes (EF2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1, while most non-tornadic supercells have been associated with values less than 1 in a large sample of RAP analysis proximity soundings.

SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A multiple ingredient, composite index that includes effective storm-relative helicity (ESRH, based on Bunkers right supercell motion), most unstable parcel CAPE (muCAPE) and convective inhibition (muCIN), and effective bulk wind difference (EBWD). Each ingredient is normalized to supercell “threshold” values, and larger values of SCP denote greater “overlap” in the three supercell ingredients. Only positive values of SCP are displayed, which correspond to environments favoring right-moving (cyclonic) supercells.

The following are the SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) and STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) forecast maps from the NAM 3KM model.  Generally, the higher the values and brighter the color, indicates a greater probability of strong thunderstorm and / or tornadic activity over an area:
NAM 3KM SCP FORECAST 6:00 P.M. CST FEB. 14– MIDNIGHT CST FEB. 15

NAM 3KM STP FORECAST 6:00 P.M. CST FEB. 14–MIDNIGHT CST FEB. 15

NAM 3KM RADAR SIMULATION 6:00 P.M. CST FEB. 14 – MIDNIGHT CST FEB. 15

Please use the following maps, which should update automatically, for Mesoscale Discussions and Convective Watches.  You may have to refresh your browser, or click on the graphics.  I have provided the SPC homepage link below, so you may get the updated information regarding any changes to the outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html
SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)

IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, TAKE IMMEDIATE SAFE AND STURDY SHELTER!
The following sites will explain most of the severe weather and tornado values listed above, and will give you an idea of what to expect:
ENVIRONMENTAL INDICES AND PARAMETERS NWS
https://www.weather.gov/lmk/indices

THE WEATHER PREDICTION
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/

The following links will connect you to the Excessive Rainfall probabilities and River Flood Outlook:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view forecasts, any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)

PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)

CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST