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Current area being watched by the NHC...
10% in the 2 to 7 day period.
Image above from Zoom Earth
Will let it simmer some and see what happens.
Today I'm discussing Analog years for 2026
From the newly updated CSU report
1957
1965
1987
1997
2009
2015
Yesterday the updated CSU forecast report came out with lots of information and a new set of analog years for this current Hurricane Season. Below are the years mentioned above. All were El Nino years. So let's take a look.
1957 Hurricane Season.
Generally a quiet hurricane season.
Usually some exception...
Early in the season Audrey formed in the BOC
It made landfall in Texas
It was a wave that moved into the BOC.
Carrie was a long tracker....
...staying at a high latitude.
Similar in ways to Erika in 1997
More on that later.
1965 was a busier season.
Lots of loopy tracks.
Most memorable was Betsy.
Struggled to develop and pull it together.
I've spent much time studying Betsy.
Spent lots of time at the NHC Library doing research.
A typical double hitter.
Florida and Louisiana
Betsy was mean.....
Then there was Carol a long tracker.
1987 was a fairly forgettable year.
Also lots of scribble scrabble tracks.
Below average El Nino Year
Still 10 people died.
90 Million dollars damage.
A lackluster Floyd did the Florida Keys & Miami
Another "dead" season more or less.
El Nino was famous ... it had nicknames.
"Mother of All El Ninos"
What can I say about 1997? My personal thoughts are censored, but always remembered. I'm fairly sure many trackers and forecasters were on some sort of meds. Similar tracks tracing along the East coast. Danny formed the hard way from an Upper Level Low near the coastline, near landafall and then was renamed upon making it to the Atlantic Ocean after doing parts of the Appalachian Trail. Erika did that big C shape out in the distant Atlantic that we have seen in these analog years. El Nino aside, there was still death, destruction and divorce. Nine people died from Danny.
Erika a long tracker.
2009 gave most people a rest...
After 2004, 2005, 2006 we needed one.
Many high latitude, long trackers.
That one storm that slips through into the Gulf
Bill a long tracking C shaped El Nino storm.
Bill threatened New England... but curved away.
It was a big wave maker.
2 people died in Maine.
1 in Florida.
Grace was an artist........
2015 Hurricane Season
Are you seeing patterns here?
I know I am...
2015 is most remembered for Joaquin.
A looper and long tracker.
Joaquin was quite the storm.
Formed from an ULL
It's dip down by the Bahamas..
...slow movement
Huge size.
Major Hurricane
Fire hose into Carolinas
Charleston had flooding...
Okracoke was evacuated
155 MPH
34 people died
The El Faro went down...
...the crew lost at sea.
So what have we really learned?
Storms still form in El Nino years, though most are meaningless and unforgettable. Many form close in along the East Coast and trace the coastline out to sea. Many loop and do odd tracks and refuse to die traveling back across the Atlantic at a high latitude. Many form from Upper Level Lows and while most are weak, some can become Major Hurricanes even in El Nino years. But........usually they are not a threat to land, but not always. People still die and there is still destruction. Hopefully not this year but we learn from history.
There will be less hurricanes. There will be less Major Hurricanes. Hope no Major Hurricane comes near you and that you are aware and prepared should one do so. Happens.
El Nino is so far officially a thing but still in it's infancy. Currently it has been said that we are twinning 1997 and if so that will be horrific for Austrailia and regions nearby as that El Nino went so far West it was responsible for drought, death and destruction reminding people El Nino is no hero, though he does lessen the chance off destructive hurricanes making landfall and yet sometimes they do. The famine was truly devastating. So hopefully 2026 will not be a strong as 1997 was and yet many say it might be. Time will tell, it always does.
From Google above....
I'll discuss the CSU report more tomorrow. But I thought it was good to look back at the analog years. Makes it easier for me as I can easily find info in my online diary that some off you choose to read.
Thanks
BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on X
X mostly weather...
1997 was a time for sure.
Chaotic
Crazy
Colorful
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